Tuesday, November 08, 2016

the women vote - the USA election



It's finally here - Election day in the USA. Time to end the crazy. Or, like I said the other day, time to move along and see what kind of congress, senate and president will get elected. The crazy won't end, but I sure hope that the language and hate that has increased steadily over the months will stop. I know that it probably won't, I'm too much of a realist to really think otherwise - but I'll hope for a while.

I also think that in order to move away from this pathetic excuse of lies and demagogue, to move into something more positive we need to understand what has happened. It's easy to think "they're just stupid idiots" (those who like and vote for the other side, well - in this election it's Trump). This article in cracked lays out 6 reasons why Trump has made headway in the (rural) USA. It's not going to help to call them dumb to vote, it won't really build anything for future. Then again, if people threaten you with guns, slurs and bullying - that's not conducive either so.... "when they go low, we go high" [for the next four years?]*

Because if Hillary wins tomorrow, Trump (and his friends) won't agree quietly. I'm quite sure it will be a dragged out lie fest, as the whole campaign has been. If Trump wins, I guess it can be over Wednesday morning and we'll wake up to a new country that will be quite different 100 days after 1 january. Reading the article gives me a little reminder on how complex the whole thing is, and that me being slightly elitist at times with all my history knowledge isn't helping the debate move forward (maybe a little though? At least I know most of the times someone is lying to my face and spewing hate, fantasies and hogwash....)

Second thing, this might cheer you up, is an article from The Atlantic in regards to the voting demographic and that HRC is carrying more women votes than ever before "Hillary Clinton appears poised to break that record: Almost all pre-election polls have shown her leading among college-educated whites. She seems virtually certain to at least double, if not triple, the widest Democratic advantage ever among college-educated white women, which was Gore’s 8 percentage points in 2000. As of Saturday, the ABC News/Washington Posttracking poll gave her a thumping 25-percentage-point lead with these women.

Of course, what made me pause was that married white women choose Trump. ("Even more worrisome for Trump would be erosion among married white women, who have preferred Republicans in every election since 1984 and gave Romney a 25-percentage-point margin last time.") Although, single white women choose Democrats. I live in the south and I have spent the last six months realizing exactly who around me vote and like the Trumpster. It's been.... .straining on some of my relationships, at least on my part.

You might think "oh she's only talking about white women".... well, it is my demographic - white, educated women (although I'm an immigrant so I guess I might end up in another bin IF I ever take the plunge to apply for citizenship [topic for unmentionables part X].

Well, the third link is this one here in The New York Times. (please note, you can read it for free for three days - 7,8,9th November. No article restrictions.) It's about the demographics of the polling and the election. I must admit that I had really missed exactly how 'weird' [again with the bins to generalize the people in] it is...












First, this is the voting-age population divided into these categories. (I was a little curious on why there wasn't a divide on college/non-college for non-whites but apparently the difference in these categories is neglectable?)

Then you move to the fall out between the groups and who they are polled to vote for. (I'm still hesitant about this, even though I heard a detailed description on how the polling is weighted etc.)



And then the icing on the cake. The reason why so many talk about "get out and vote" - the people who could've voted last election but who didn't. And in this election that will really make a huge difference. Remember, Florida got decided on 537 votes last time it was contentious.... crazy when you think about it considering how many people live there.












I'm going to bed now and hope for some sleep since tomorrow I will be staring at the voting counts and hope for one thing specifically: that we don't get a senate, house and president who are all the GOP (Trump with a GOP congress....is there any hope then?) I really fear for this country if so. If Hilary wins and the house and senate are GOP - i guess we can look forward to grid lock and people claiming that they are responsible by "blocking everything since they don't get their way". Come to think of it, that's probalby the most likely outcome in general since it seems like that's an acceptable way to "govern" nowadays.

What ever happened to the good old ways - you know the times when people who were elected and chosen to govern took pride in working together and making compromises to make progress. Maybe it was all a dream as well?







*sad story of my experience with dealing with bullies. The way the bullies stopped? Well, one time it was my big brother showing up at the school yard telling some of the boys that if they touched me again, he'd come with his older friends and beat them up. They boys never touched me again.
Another time, calling another boy's mother and threatened with calling "the friends at the police and social services". He never did anything again either. Or when I finally lost it with the girl who had it in for me and punched her in the face. I got in trouble (of course) but she never did anything again either. All these instances show me that maybe you have to have some power behind the stance for it to be taken seriously? Or my experiences were a little too bleak and are outliers?

Although, consider how Trump dealt (or not dealt rather) with the confrontation with the billionaire Bloomberg.... Trump couldn't really get to Bloomberg since he is richer and has a lot of pull himself. The usual tactic didn't work.

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